Good day. This is LIAN GLOBAL LOGIS.

If you have personally managed import clearance and billing, you have likely sensed frustration over the past two months as the numbers on forwarder quotations climb with increasing speed. In July 2026, the SCFI (Shanghai Containerized Freight Index) rose approximately 74% compared to May, breaching the 3,300 barrier, while the Asia-US East Coast route surged as much as 80% in a single month. Concurrent with this, Q3 bunker adjustment factors (BAF) increased 52% versus Q2, and supplementary cost line items on quotations have begun accumulating.

This shift is pressuring shipper quarterly invoices on two fronts simultaneously. Base rates and surcharges are rising in tandem, and particularly among smaller importers who do not independently track market conditions, the practice of accepting forwarder quotations at face value has led to settlement variances larger than anticipated.

Why July Ocean Freight Rates Surged — Three Drivers Diagnosed

The July surge is not attributable to a single factor but to the convergence of three conditions.

First, front-loading demand ahead of announced US tariff implementation (scheduled for late July 2026). US import buyers accelerated shipments to clear cargo before new tariffs took effect, creating a spike in transpacific space demand. This front-loading exhausted vessel capacity, and repeated booking cutoffs have occurred since May.

Second, capacity shortage and cascading GRI (General Rate Increase) applications. Major alliances announced GRIs in June and July respectively, enforcing per-TEU rate increases of USD 1,000–2,000. With Red Sea diversions still not normalized and vessel rotation rates depressed, vessel supply continues to lag demand.

Third, substantial Q3 bunker adjustment factor (BAF) increase. On Asia-US East Coast routes, Q3 BAF rose approximately 52% versus Q2. Because BAF adjusts on a quarterly basis, shippers often remain unaware at the time of booking and discover the increase only upon receipt of the actual invoice.

Three drivers of July ocean freight surge — tariff front-loading, capacity constraints, and fuel surcharge increases visualized in infographic Three drivers converged simultaneously to drive July rate increases.

Cost and Time Impact Analysis — Line-by-Line Quotation Recalculation

Assuming a single 20-foot container shipped from Busan to the US East Coast (New York basis), the invoice structure diverges between May and July as follows. The figures below reference 2026 May and July market averages and may vary by shipper contract terms and carrier.

Line Item	May (2026-05)	July (2026-07)	Difference	Shipper Impact
Ocean Freight (Base)	USD 2,800	USD 4,900	+USD 2,100	Base rate itself rises over 74%
BAF (Bunker Adjustment Factor)	USD 380	USD 578	+USD 198	Q3 regular adjustment, 52% increase
PSS (Peak Season Surcharge)	USD 0	USD 600	+USD 600	Introduced July, new billing line
GRI Subtotal	USD 3,180	USD 6,078	+USD 2,898	Approximately 91% increase per TEU
Lead Time (Busan→New York)	35-38 days	38-45 days	+3-7 days	Increased vessel delays and transshipment wait

For an importer moving 50 TEU per quarter, the per-TEU increase of +USD 2,898 translates to approximately +USD 144,900 per quarter, or roughly +₩200 million at a USD/KRW 1,380 exchange rate. The 3-7 day lead time extension compounds this through reduced inventory turnover and pressure to expand safety stock, multiplying logistics costs with carrying costs.

A critical point importers frequently overlook on quotations is whether BAF and PSS appear as separate line items or are consolidated into an all-in rate. All-in quotations obscure which adjustment was applied and when, making tracking difficult.

May and July quotation comparison by line — bunker surcharge and peak season surcharge added to structure Same route, same container—yet quotation structure itself has changed.

How to Verify Bunker Surcharges on Quotations

To validate BAF and related supplementary charges on a forwarder quotation, verify the following three lines in sequence.

First, confirm that a BAF (Bunker Adjustment Factor) or LSS (Low Sulfur Surcharge) line appears as a discrete line item. Some quotations list only "Surcharge" in a single line and omit detail, so requesting itemized breakdowns is a shipper's legitimate right.

Second, verify the effective date. Q3 BAF typically takes effect 2026-07-01; if booking confirmation occurred at month-end June, the prior rate may apply. The relationship between implementation date and booking date must be clarified.

Third, separately confirm PSS (Peak Season Surcharge) and GRI application. PSS is a new item introduced in July, ranging from USD 500–1,000 per TEU by carrier, and cases of omission from initial quotations followed by later supplementary billing are increasing.

Situation-Based Response Options A, B, C

Not all shippers require identical responses in a rate surge environment. Three options branch according to shipper inventory cushion, delivery pressure, and contract structure.

Option A — Rate Priority (Shippers with Inventory Cushion)

For shippers with 3-4 weeks of delivery flexibility and adequate safety stock, adjusting booking timing to mid-August or later is an effective strategy to sidestep the near-term surge. Once front-loading demand subsides after late August, spot rates may reverse downward, creating a window for USD 800–1,500 per TEU savings versus current levels. This approach requires accepting 3-5 additional days of lead time and is unsuitable for items facing raw material shortage risk.

Option B — Lead Time Priority (Urgent Shippers)

For shippers requiring early August arrival due to season close-out or urgent purchase orders, securing vessel space takes precedence over rate reduction. Parallel NVOCC spot and carrier direct (BCO rate) contracts should be evaluated, or US West Coast discharge followed by mini-landbridge or air combination should be considered instead of standard IPI (Inland Point Intermodal). Expected cost ranges from USD 6,500–8,000 per TEU but achieves 5-7 day acceleration.

Option C — Risk Diversification Priority (Shippers with High Single-Carrier Dependency)

Shippers with 70% or more of booking volume concentrated on a single alliance have experienced sharp erosion of negotiating leverage during this surge. Diversify across 2-3 carriers during Q3 and restructure MQC (Minimum Quantity Commitment) contracts blended with spot at a 6:4 or 7:3 ratio. Rates will be slightly higher than Option A, but defensive positioning is secured against next quarter's booking cutoffs and potential PSS re-increases.

Three shipper response options by situation — rate priority, lead time priority, risk diversification comparison Response options vary according to shipper inventory cushion and delivery pressure.

Operations Checklist for Immediate Action

Items import managers must personally verify and execute this week:

Open the past three months of quotations and confirm that Ocean Freight, BAF, PSS, and GRI lines are each listed separately. If presented as all-in rates, request itemized detail in writing from the forwarder.
Cross-reference the Q3 BAF increase (52% effective 2026-07-01) against SCFI and Shanghai Shipping Exchange published data to verify accuracy or detect over-billing.
Confirm carrier-specific PSS rates (USD 500–1,000 per TEU introduced July) and obtain written confirmation that quotations do not omit this item for later supplementary billing.
Calculate Q3 logistics budget revision by multiplying projected quarterly volume (TEU) by per-TEU increase (approximately USD 2,900) and coordinate cost reflection timing with finance.
If MQC contracts exist, recheck remaining volume and spot volume ratio, then restructure booking across 2-3 carriers to diversify risk.
Account for potential spot rate reversal in mid-to-late August once front-loading demand subsides post-tariff implementation, and prepare August booking timing under two scenarios.
Share documentation with sales on the necessity of cost pass-through, with procurement on shipment timing adjustment, and with finance on quarterly logistics budget revision.

Why Quotation Review Is Critical Now

The convergence of 74% two-month surge, 52% BAF increase, and new PSS introduction is not seasonal variation but a structural surge combining tariff, capacity, and fuel variables. Shippers who do not independently track market conditions lack a baseline to judge whether quotation increases are above or below market average, and thus accept invoices uncritically.

Within an increasingly complex global supply chain environment, the most essential capability for shippers is the ability to verify line-item detail transparently and proactively manage adjustment timing. LIAN GLOBAL LOGIS's differentiated forwarding consulting originates precisely at this point. Beyond simple booking execution, we recommend conducting line-by-line quotation validation against SCFI, BAF, and PSS market benchmarks and designing situation-specific booking strategies (Options A, B, C) in partnership with LIAN GLOBAL LOGIS.